Deflaţie monetară în România

După peste 4 ani de expansiune monetară susţinută, BNR a redus cantitatea de bani din economie. În ultimii ani, oferta de bani a crescut puternic, însă nu şi-a exercitat efectele asupra preţurilor de consum, ci asupra pieţelor factorilor de producţie. Creditul ieftin acordat pe bandă rulantă a alimentat mai degrabă investiţiile decât cererea de bunuri de consum. În acelaşi timp, cheltuielile agenţilor economice s-au îndreptat masiv către străinătate – deficitul commercial jucând rolul de supapă pentru presiunile inflaţioniste în creştere.

În tot acest timp, BNR s-a lăsat ameţită de vraja politicii de ţintire a inflaţiei, ignorând creşterea explozivă a pieţei activelor. S-a amăgit că “remonetizarea” este benefică pentru economie, pentru că preţurile de consum nu creşteau. A uitat până şi celebrul avertisment al lui Milton Friedman – care a spus impactul politicii monetare asupra economiei are loc după “o perioadă lungă şi variabilă”. A crezut că navighează pe mări sigure, ignorând norii negri care se acumulau la orizont.

Acum avem deflaţie monetară. Masa monetară M1 a scăzut cu aproape 15% din octombrie anul trecut. În termeni reali, scăderea e mai drastică. Am putea avea la fel de bine inflaţie deschisă, pentru a elimina presiunile din economie, însă aşa ceva, perfect posibil acum un deceniu, nu mai dă bine la CV-ul celui mai longeviv guvernator de bancă centrală din lume. Deci BNR a ales calea corectă, eliminarea excesului de lichiditate din piaţă. Singura problemă este că erorile comise în perioada de boom, greşelile investiţionale induse de expansiunea monetară, nu au fost curăţate decât parţial. În bună măsură au fost preluate de guvern, care le rostogoleşte în viitor (vezi articolul precedent). Ca şi în SUA, la noi pericolul inflaţiei nu a trecut. Din contră. Să ne aşteptăm la socializarea acestor erori şi la acoperirea acestora prin impozitare? Pare o cale mai civilizată decât folosirea inflaţiei? În fond, ambele metode sunt jaf la drumul mare.
Deflatie monetara

Despre BNR, Despre criza | Bogdan Glăvan | Noiembrie 24, 2009 3:20 pm

9 comentarii

By vala, Noiembrie 24, 2009 @ 7:06 pm

scaderea masei monetare a dus mai mult la blocaj financiar decat la scaderea preturilor lucru despre care cred ca e un rau mai mare decat inflatia … socializarea prin impozitare pare un nou experiment … eu nu as mai incerca lucruri noi … prefer inflatia …
By Bogdan Glavan, Noiembrie 24, 2009 @ 8:50 pm

Degeaba, de o crestere a TVA la anul cu totii suntem datori!
Exact asat zic si eu, ca erorile nu s-au reparat, arieratele se acumuleaza si se pun in carca statului.
Deflatia nu este nicio problema. Am scris despre asta, se poate vedea chiar in capul site-ului
By ionut, Noiembrie 24, 2009 @ 8:55 pm

@vala

Nu scaderea masei monetare a dus la blocajul financiar, ci politicile guvernamentale eronate si nevoia disperata a bancilor comerciale de a-si masca pierderile.
By ionut, Noiembrie 24, 2009 @ 8:56 pm

Si vala, mai degraba prefer deflatia inflatiei.
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