Logica economica

Marius Spiridon – Matematica în economie

Răspunzând solicitărilor prietenilor acestui blog am pregătit prima parte a prelegerii susținute de Marius Spiridon în cadrul Colocviului SOREC Matematica în economie, pe 22 iulie la ASE București. În această parte Marius Spiridon face o prezentare “de manual” a argumentului împotriva matematizării economiei. Prelegerea a fost urmată de o intensă dezbatere la care au luat parte partizani ai modelării matematice (remarcându-se printre alții Altăr Moise, Alexandra Horobet, Aron Jinaru, Aurelian Dochia) și contraopinenții lor din Școala Austriacă (Tudor Smirna, Vlad Topan, Cristian Păun, Claudiu Nasui, subsemnatul). Întreaga întâlnire a durat circa 4 ore, ceea ce spune multe despre importanța pe care i-au acordat-o participanții.

Matematica in economie part 1 from Bogdan Glavan on Vimeo.

Vă sfătuiesc să citiți și cele povestite despre această dezbatere de Andreas Stamate.

Despre economişti | Bogdan Glăvan | iulie 28, 2010 11:16 am

10 comentarii

By Bogdan, iulie 28, 2010 @ 11:38 am

Nu exista si o inregistrare video? Asta e doar o inregistrare audio, ok pina la un punct, dar…
By Bogdan Glavan, iulie 28, 2010 @ 1:22 pm

Nu posed o inregistrare video, nici nu stiu sa existe.
By Dan, iulie 28, 2010 @ 2:03 pm

Foarte buna inregistrarea. Pacat ca a durat asa de putin .
Ar mai fi un aspect legat de matematica in economie: daca econometristii baga mana in foc pt. ea, in mod normal ar trebui sa poata fi trasi la raspundere legal, banesc, in cazul unui esec, nu? De exemplu ma duc la firma x pt. consultanta financiara. Ii dau bani si-i cer sfatul cum sa-mi dezvolt afacerea, in ce sa investesc, etc.
Aia fac o analiza, statistici sau ce-or mai face, si imi zic ca as avea nevoie de x bani pt. o dezvoltare care sa-mi asigure y profit in viitor (desigur, calculat aproximativ). Ce se-ntampla daca, aplicand toate sfaturile firmei de consultanta, rezultatul e negativ? Pot sa-i dau in judecata pt. sfaturile lor stiintifice, bazate pe matematica si econometrie? Nu cunosc legislatia romaneasca dar ma-ndoiesc. Pai si-atunci de ce sa irosesti bani pe statisticieni, econometristi, etc. daca nu-ti ofera nici o polita de asigurare/nici o garantie ?
Economistii matematicieni si econometristii nu-si asuma responsabilitatea propriei lor stiinte, adica nu pun banii pe masa daca dau gres, deci daca ei insisi se-ndoiesc de propria stiinta cum de au pretentia ca outsiderii s-o imbratiseze ? E ca si cum as zice unui investitor sa bage 1 miliard de euro in afacerea X, dar eu ma abtin sa ma implic cu ceea ce am.
In afara risipei resurselor, nu vad nici un “merit” matematicii aplicate in economie. Studiile de fezabilitate si alte asemenea, oare nu reprezinta un exemplu in acest sens? Cate studii de fezabilitate s-au facut in Romania, din banul contribuabilului, pana si legat de autostrazi, fara sa aiba justificare. Ar fi fost mai usor ca Vladescu sa-si spuna parerea, doar e ministru de finante, in loc sa nu se mai aloce atatia bani pt. a afla… parerile altora.
By Alex Nicolin, iulie 28, 2010 @ 6:58 pm

Iata si un rezumat al dezbaterii:
http://mises.ro/787/
By Ionut, iulie 28, 2010 @ 7:40 pm

Foarte clar si eficient prezentata parerea domnului Spiridon. Sa mai promovati evenimente de acest gen si asteptam si alte inregistrari/prezentari. Nu pot sa fie decat benefice pentru ambele tabere, si, mai ales, pentru economistii romani. Multumim.
By ionut, iulie 28, 2010 @ 7:53 pm

@Dan

Pai ar insemna sa arunci banii pe fereastra. In plus, sunt convins ca firma de consultanta, daca ar fi sa raspunda pentru esec, ar ajunge, culmea, la concluzia corecta si si-ar construi apararea in maniera: economia nu poate functiona pe baza de input-uri perfecte, ca e anticipativa, iar preferintele oamenilor sunt subiective deci (nemasurabile si neagregabile) si se manifesta in timp (iar firma noastra n-a gasit inca metoda de a stapani timpul):D
Nici un contract de consultanta nu-ti garanteaza succesul, decat daca sunt prosti bata!:-)
Iata cum se poate demonstra faptul ca interventia statului in economie e o problema, nicidecum solutia!
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